Are you a “theoretical”? Or “intuition”?

What kind of hand will you choose in the next simple game?

(The original game has been arranged a little, but the essence has not changed.)

The rules of the game are very simple.

First, three boxes (the size and appearance) are lined up in front of you, and only one box contains very expensive products.

Here, let’s say “jewelry for 10 million yen” so that it is easy to imagine “expensive products”. (If you don’t care about it unless it’s cash, you can immediately think of it as a jewel that can be cashed, lol)

There are only you and the moderator. (By the way, the moderator knows which box is in the jewelry.)

And you have the chance to choose a box twice.

The progress of the game is as follows.

First choice: You choose one of the three boxes.

Suppose you choose A in the box written A, B, and C.

Here, the moderator opens one of the two boxes (b and c) you did not choose. (Because the moderator knows where the jewel is in), opens one box in the sky.

And here is the fateful road! You will be given the second choice!

Second selection (final chance): “Do you want to re -select a box? Or is it the same box?”

In other words, which is more likely to hit if you re -select the box or not re -select it? It is also a problem that can be replaced with the question.

Now, what do you do? ! !

By the way, the following is the announcement of the “correct choice”! !

Many people think, “What?! Which is the right choice?”

Because, the probability of choosing a box from three boxes first is one -third, and the probability after the box is two is one -half, so isn’t the probability low? Because the idea comes to mind.

Actually, where I think this is interesting, the “high probability of winning (that is, the right choice)” is a “re -select a box”! !

The simplest and hungry “commentary” is as follows.

Here again, please take a look at the three boxes that are lined up from a distance (overlooking).

And it is easy to understand if you draw a line between the box A and the box B.

The probability of box A hits 카지노사이트 is one -third (1/3).

At that time, the probability of box B or box C was two -thirds (= 1/3 + 1/3).

Here, the moderator excludes the box C as an empty option.

This is important! In that case, the probability of box B (the probability of C is also clearly received) is two -thirds!

In other words, if you consider the probability, it is more likely that you will hit Box B again! !

Isn’t this interesting? !

However, of course, it is possible that the jewel is in box A from the beginning, so it is possible that you will re -select it as a box B and lose it, so it is just a matter of “which is more likely”.

When I understood this problem, I thought, “I wonder if the” great gambler “can repeat these theoretical choices without changing one complexion.”

To be honest, I believe in my first “intuition”, and I feel like I’m a type that doesn’t change the box with my second choice.

(Especially, I have a strong desire to change the chosen box and actually regret when the first box was hit.)

It was such a “Monty Hall problem” that I felt a little to understand my personality.

IR (integrated resort) / Casino business, let’s study more “probability” so that we are a little closer to the “theoretical”!

The problem is named for a game show in the United States.

Toyota GR86 for the UK for the UK, which gained enthusiastic support, was sold out 90 minutes after the start of orders. The new GR86, which was launched as a successor to the GT86 (Japanese name: 86), started selling 모바일바카라 in the UK early this month. The price of 29995 pounds (about 4.95 million yen) is one of the most affordable sports coupe on sale. [Photo] Toyota GR86 [Comparison with Domestic Rival and Photos] (107 sheets), which has been the hottest in Europe (107), has reached the scheduled number in less than an hour and a half, so Toyota closed its order platform in the UK. It is decided that the production of GR86 in Europe will only be performed for two years because it does not conform to the collision safety regulation that will soon be introduced. Toyota’s British division commented to AutoCar that additional introduction to the market was “not planned at this stage.” Nevertheless, for those who missed it, there is also a relief measure. According to Toyota, it is possible to wait for cancellation in case the order is canceled. It is said that the slot will be assigned as soon as the order occurs, as soon as the cancellation occurs. After being sold out early, Toyota’s spokeswoman stated: “This popularity reflects the fact that early prototypes were enthusiastic from British automobile media and that production in Europe would be terminated within two years.” The delivery of the car will start in July. The British price of the GR86, which cuts a relatively affordable price of 30,000 pounds, is about the same as the Mazda MX-5 (Japanese name: Roadster) intermediate grade. In the UK specification, a 10 -inch aluminum equipped with Michelin PS4 tires, 8.0 -inch touch screen with smartphone linkage, back camera and blind spot monitor, LED adaptive headlights, and 7.0 inch digital meter display It is a simple price system that develops only. In addition, the transmission can be changed to AT for £ 2090 (about 350,000 yen). The new GR86 was released last year with the jointly developed Subaru BRZ, and made a dynamic debut in the UK at the Goodwood Festival of Speed. The AutoCar editorial department has been testing a prototype in Spain a few months later. Subaru BRZ is not sold in Europe. Toyota states that these two models have been developed through “friendly rivalry”, both of which provide a “clear driving feel.”

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