What kind of hand will you choose in the next simple game?
(The original game has been arranged a little, but the essence has not changed.)
The rules of the game are very simple.
First, three boxes (the size and appearance) are lined up in front of you, and only one box contains very expensive products.
Here, let’s say “jewelry for 10 million yen” so that it is easy to imagine “expensive products”. (If you don’t care about it unless it’s cash, you can immediately think of it as a jewel that can be cashed, lol)
There are only you and the moderator. (By the way, the moderator knows which box is in the jewelry.)
And you have the chance to choose a box twice.
The progress of the game is as follows.
First choice: You choose one of the three boxes.
Suppose you choose A in the box written A, B, and C.
Here, the moderator opens one of the two boxes (b and c) you did not choose. (Because the moderator knows where the jewel is in), opens one box in the sky.
And here is the fateful road! You will be given the second choice!
Second selection (final chance): “Do you want to re -select a box? Or is it the same box?”
In other words, which is more likely to hit if you re -select the box or not re -select it? It is also a problem that can be replaced with the question.
Now, what do you do? ! !
By the way, the following is the announcement of the “correct choice”! !
Many people think, “What?! Which is the right choice?”
Because, the probability of choosing a box from three boxes first is one -third, and the probability after the box is two is one -half, so isn’t the probability low? Because the idea comes to mind.
Actually, where I think this is interesting, the “high probability of winning (that is, the right choice)” is a “re -select a box”! !
The simplest and hungry “commentary” is as follows.
Here again, please take a look at the three boxes that are lined up from a distance (overlooking).
And it is easy to understand if you draw a line between the box A and the box B.
The probability of box A hits 카지노사이트 is one -third (1/3).
At that time, the probability of box B or box C was two -thirds (= 1/3 + 1/3).
Here, the moderator excludes the box C as an empty option.
This is important! In that case, the probability of box B (the probability of C is also clearly received) is two -thirds!
In other words, if you consider the probability, it is more likely that you will hit Box B again! !
Isn’t this interesting? !
However, of course, it is possible that the jewel is in box A from the beginning, so it is possible that you will re -select it as a box B and lose it, so it is just a matter of “which is more likely”.
When I understood this problem, I thought, “I wonder if the” great gambler “can repeat these theoretical choices without changing one complexion.”
To be honest, I believe in my first “intuition”, and I feel like I’m a type that doesn’t change the box with my second choice.
(Especially, I have a strong desire to change the chosen box and actually regret when the first box was hit.)
It was such a “Monty Hall problem” that I felt a little to understand my personality.
IR (integrated resort) / Casino business, let’s study more “probability” so that we are a little closer to the “theoretical”!
The problem is named for a game show in the United States.
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